21 LBM-Related Predictions and Signs of the Times, Drawn from All Over

By Craig Webb, President, Webb Analytics

Convention season for LBM is the time when experts analyze current events and prognosticate about what's to come in construction supply. Here are 21 numbers collected over the past few weeks that you can use to create your own forecast.

51.81%

How much the going price of Canadian lumber would go up when it enters the U.S. because of a potential anti-dumping duty, countervailing duty, and 25% tariff. That's up from the average 14.74% that was in effect before the tariff was imposed and the Commerce Department determined the duties should rise, the National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association says.

$7,500 to $10,000

How much more a home could cost because of the tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, according to The Builders Daily.

115,893

The number of potential buyers who get priced out of the market every time a new home's cost goes up by $1,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

85%

How much more Gerber Plumbing Fixture's parent company is paying in freight charges vs. 2019.

25.5%

The share of construction workers that are immigrants, according to NAHB.

1 in 10

The share of all construction workers that are undocumented, according to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC). Among drywall workers, it's 38%; among roofers, 32%. All told, JBREC believes 1.6 million people in the construction workforce lack papers allowing them to work in the U.S.

1.2%

The percentage increase in homeowner improvements and repairs that the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) believes will happen this year. That's an increase to $509 billion from $506 billion.

0.2%

How much NAHB believes single-family starts will rise in 2025, to 1.01 million units.

-11%

How much NAHB believe multi-family starts will decline in 2025, to 317,000 units.

40%

The share of all homeowners who don't have a mortgage. They're the ones who are most active in the current new-home market, JBREC's John Burns says. Of the people who do have mortgages, 71% are paying an annual rate under 5%. That's so much better than current mortgage rates that they aren't going to move unless they have to.

Half

How much of all U.S. personal spending is done by the richest 10% of Americans, according to Moody's Analytics.

25%

The share of remodeling and similar contractors surveyed by The Farnsworth Group in 4Q24 who predict their firm's revenue will grow significantly in 2025.

0.8%

How much more the National Kitchen + Bath Association predicts will be spent on K+B in both new construction and remodeling during 2025. The gain is just $2 billion to total $235 billion.

+3.8% vs. -3.0%

This is how NKBA gets it's 0.8% growth. The value of the work done will rise 3.8%, but the volume of work will shrink by 3.0%.

60%

The share of roofing companies surveyed by Roofing Contractor magazine who believe their sales volume will go up slightly (42%) or greatly (18%) in 2025.

7.1% to 12.4%

The annual rate of revenue growth forecast in 2025 by architects, general contractors, design-build firms, landscaping businesses, and specialty interior service firms, according to a Houzz survey.

-0.3% to -7.2%

The range in percentage drop in revenue by those Houzz survey respondents when asked to compare 2024 results with 2023.

115,000

The number of spec homes that are finished but unsold as of January. According to ResiClub, that's the highest level since July 2009.

1.4 Million per Year

How many new homes we'll need each year through 2035 just to meed expected population growth, according to JCHS. And this number doesn't cut into the current shortage of homes today.

38

The average age of a first-time homebuyer today. For a repeat buyer, the average age is 61.

Over 2 Million

The number of federal civilian employees working nationwide as of December, according to the Congressional Research Service. Of those, nearly 80% live outside Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, DC. The 2 million number excludes the U.S. Postal Service, most legislative and judicial branches, and state-level location information for the FBI, Secret Service, ATF, and the DEA.